🌎 Gas turbine gridlock #236

Supply shortages mean gas projects get stuck in the pipeline

CTVC

Happy Monday! 

Hope your internal clock has adjusted after this weekend’s daylight savings. In this edition, we’re talking about a different kind of countdown: long delays in gas turbine manufacturing that threaten new gas plant projects and the ability to meet the grid’s load growth.

In deals, $59m for nuclear energy across two deals, $50m for Perovskite-silicon hybrid solar panels, and $30m for DAC. 

In other news, BP cancels green hydrogen projects, solar stocks plunge, and new grid transmission investments.

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Bridging the natural gas turbine gap

Amid record data center-fueled power demand projections and the White House’s “energy abundance” agenda, 2025 was set to be the year of natural gas. But one thing might make the sector run out of steam before it powers ahead: a shortage of gas turbines. 

Gas turbine manufacturers are swamped with orders, with delivery backlogs that stretch past 2029 already leading to project cancellations, like Engie pulling out of two gas plant projects in Texas late last month. As these delays pile up, the risk of gridlock grows — threatening to short-circuit load growth and power down grid reliability.

What happened

We’ve said it before, but it bears repeating: After years of stagnation, US electricity demand is surging — driven by data centers, manufacturing, and electrification. Energy companies are racing to meet it, and natural gas is a familiar play, as emerging clean firm power can’t yet meet the needs of large consumers, including anchor customers like data center hyperscalers.

However, building new gas capacity isn’t straightforward. Gas plants rely on turbines that burn natural gas to generate electricity and can be retrofitted with carbon capture to help lower emissions. Securing these turbines has become a bottleneck. The “Big Three” gas turbine manufacturers — GE Vernova, Siemens, and MHI — are overwhelmed with orders, pushing delivery times out to 2029 and beyond. Rather than massively expanding production, these companies are limiting their investments to protect margins, according to Heatmap, especially amid uncertainty about the true scale of data center energy demands post-DeepSeek. High CapEx turbine manufacturers are wary of betting big and getting burned — a lesson learned from the 2018 gas turbine market crash

Source: Global Energy Monitor

These shortages are hitting energy companies like Engie hard. The company recently withdrew two proposed gas plants — Perseus and Spenser — from the Texas Energy Fund (TEF), citing procurement delays. The $5bn TEF was created to support gas projects after 2023’s Winter Storm Uri, but supply chain issues and soaring costs are causing many to drop out. Gas turbine manufacturers are now advising developers to plan seven to eight years ahead to secure equipment — timelines that clash with urgent needs.

Why it matters

Gas alone cannot meet the expected load growth within the next few years, but some gas plants will move forward despite these delays. GE Vernova could manufacture >50GW of turbines over the next five years, a large chunk of the 128 GW of potential load growth in the US over that period. Not all of these turbines will be installed in the US, though, and developers’ appetites to bid for high-priced turbines depends on how attractive alternative forms of generation are and what policy incentives are available where (i.e. the TEF). 

In an effort to get gas online faster, some developers are focusing on brownfield retrofits — adding gas capacity next to existing infrastructure — and others, like Chevron and NextEra, are trying to bypass the bottleneck by securing equipment directly from turbine manufacturers. Meanwhile, companies like Exxon are trying to make gas a low(er)-carbon option through carbon capture and gas projects (which leverage IRA-backed CCS tax credits), but commercial deployment has been slow. 

Overall, though, these supply chain-induced delays threaten natural gas’ appeal as the “bridge fuel” for the clean energy transition, generation that could come online quickly and then get retired once clean firm power techs were ready. But gas project timelines that put operations in the late 2020s mean that it might be cheaper to just build low-carbon techs in the first place, with no bridge.

A particular advantage of the low-carbon route would be to avoid the risk of locking in high-carbon generation that might be forced to come offline well before its end-of-life by policy changes. For now, US gas plants remain significant emitters, releasing just over 1bn tonnes of CO2 in 2024 — the highest on record (but still relatively smaller than coal).

Key takeaways

  • Caution abounds in energy infrastructure planning. Turbine manufacturers are not betting on persistent demand, instead choosing to modestly expand their manufacturing capacity until they can make sense of the role that gas will play in the longer term. This measured response comes as the industry navigates political uncertainty: in particular,  Japan-based MHI could face additional challenges from US tariffs and policies that favor US manufacturers like GE Vernova.
  • Gas’ “bridge fuel” status under threat. The “bridge fuel” argument assumes that gas generation is the fastest way to get capacity on the grid, a necessary evil to meet load growth now before decarbonizing later. If turbine manufacturing limits near-term gas buildout, this means trouble for big loads and opportunity for clean firm alternatives. It could be a bridge to nowhere.

Deals of the Week (3/3-3/9)

Late-Stage / Growth

Steady Energy, an Espoo, Finland-based nuclear residential heating developer, raised $24m in Growth funding from 92 Ventures and Lifeline Ventures. 

🔋 Echandia, a Stockholm, Sweden-based maritime energy storage developer, raised $21m in Growth funding from Industrifonden, Klima, Alantra, Energy & Environment Investment, and SEB Greentech Venture Capital.

Early-Stage

☀️ Tandem PV, a San-Jose, CA-based perovskite-silicon hybrid solar panel manufacturer, raised $50m in Series A funding from Eclipse Ventures, CSC Leasing, Constellation Energy, Planetary Technologies, Stifel Bank, and other investors.

Renaissance Fusion, a Grenoble, France-based nuclear fusion developer, raised $35m in Series A funding from Crédit Mutuel Impact and Lowercarbon Capital.

💨 Spiritus, a Los Alamos, New Mexico-based direct air capture technology provider, raised $30m in Series A funding from Aramco Ventures, Khosla Ventures, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and TDK Ventures. 

🌳 Cambium Carbon, a Baltimore, MD-based reclaimed wood supply platform, raised $19m in Series A funding from VoLo Earth Ventures, 81 Collection, Alumni Ventures, Dangerous Ventures, Groundswell Ventures, and other investors.

♻️ Epoch Biodesign, a London, England-based enzyme biorecycling platform, raised $18m in Series A funding from Extantia, Day One Ventures, Happiness Capital, Inditex, KOMPAS, and other investors. 

🏭 CaPow, a Beersheba, Israel-based battery-free robotic fleet developer, raised $15m in Series A funding from Toyota Ventures, Doral Energy-Tech Ventures, Elements VC, IL Ventures, Mobilion Ventures, and other investors. 

Stargate Hydrogen, a Tallinn, Estonia-based alkaline electrolyzer developer, raised $12m in Series A funding from Giga, SmartCap Green Fund, and UG Investments. 

🌾 Avalo, a Durham, NC-based genome analysis platform for climate-resilient crops, raised $11m in Series A funding from Alexandria Venture Investments, Germin8 Ventures, At One Ventures, Better Ventures, Climate Capital, and other investors. 

🔋 Glimpse, a Somerville, MA-based battery quality monitoring developer, raised $10m in Series A funding from TDK Ventures, Flybridge Capital Partners, and Ibex Mobility. 

Mote Hydrogen, a Los Angeles, CA-based bioenergy-to-hydrogen developer, raised $7m in Series A funding from Nella Next, Preston-Werner Ventures, and Counteract. 

🛰 Esper, a Melbourne, Australia-based earth satellite monitoring developer, raised $5m in Seed funding from Paspalis Capital and Hejaz. 

Skyfora, a Helsinki, Finland-based AI-based weather forecasts pplatform, raised $4m in Seed funding from LUMO Labs, Ugly Duckling Ventures, European Investment Fund (EIF), and Voima Ventures. 

🐄 Beta Bugs, an Edinburgh, Scotland-based insect protein for animal feed developer, raised $3m in Seed funding from Scottish Enterprise and TRICAPITAL Angels. 

Other

💨 Solar Foods, a Helsinki, Finland-based CO2-to-protein developer, raised $11m in Grant funding from Business Finland. 

🧪 Nitricity, a Fremont, CA-based nitrogen fertilizer producer, raised $10m in Project Finance funding from Elemental Impact and Trellis Climate. 

⚒️ E3 Lithium, a Calgary, Canada-based lithium extraction from oilfields service provider, raised $5m in Grant funding from Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund (CMIF). 

🔋 Our Next Energy, a Novi, MI-based EV battery manufacturer, raised an undisclosed amount in Growth funding from Crescent Ventures and Trousdale Ventures. 

Exits

🏠 ASA Controls, a Hamilton, OH-based turnkey system controls provider, was acquired by Ameresco. 

Can’t get enough deals? See full listings and deal analytics on Sightline Climate.


In the News

BP has canceled one of the UK’s largest green hydrogen projects, a significant blow to the country’s low-carbon hydrogen industry. The cancellation shows just how tough it is to lock in offtake agreements, which are crucial for making big hydrogen projects work. Even though the UK government has been all-in on hydrogen clusters, this setback raises big questions about how realistic the nation’s green hydrogen goals really are.

Sunnova’s 71% stock plunge underscores the turmoil in the US solar industry, with rising costs and regulatory uncertainty taking a toll on companies. Despite the growing demand for clean energy, challenges like supply chain disruptions, high interest rates, and unpredictable policy shifts have left solar firms struggling to maintain profitability in public markets. 

To meet rising power demand, the PJM Interconnection board approved a $6.7bn plan to enhance grid reliability, including a $4.6bn transmission backbone by AEP, Dominion, and FirstEnergy to improve power transfers and support energy demands. However, it still faces challenges from supply chain issues and rising equipment costs, with permitting delays and extended wait times for cables and transformers further complicating development.

New South Wales awarded contracts for nearly 14GWh of long-duration energy storage, including two battery projects and a major pumped hydro facility. While most tenders favor lithium-ion for cost competitiveness, non-lithium technologies dominate in total capacity. These projects will enhance grid reliability and support NSW’s goal of 28GWh of storage by 2034, with over 65% of the target now secured, showing momentum for emerging technologies.

This week in nuclear developments, Italy officially reversed its decades-long ban on nuclear, passing legislation to reintroduce nuclear power as part of its energy strategy. Meanwhile, historically anti-nuclear Germany has a newly elected leader, Friedrich Merz, who signaled he will take a more supportive bloc-wide stance. These developments signal a potential turning point in Europe’s long-standing debate over nuclear energy’s role in the clean energy transition.

The US State Department ended its global air quality monitoring program, which tracked pollution data at over 80 embassies and consulates. Initiated in 2008, the program offered independent air pollution readings that often spurred local governments to improve air quality. Its termination raises concerns among scientists about the loss of reliable data essential for public health research and environmental policy.


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DOE funding freeze leaves small energy startups out in the cold.

Politico featuring Sightline about the state of climate tech exits. 


Trendline

Source: UK Climate Change Committee’s Seventh Carbon Budget

The UK's proposed pathway to net-zero.


Opportunities & Events

📅 Strategic Communications for Climate Tech: RSVP to attend Strategic Communications for Climate Tech: Adapting to Policy and Market Challenges, a webinar hosted by Heatmap on March 20th, for an expert discussion on navigating communications in today’s complex energy landscape.

📅 BuildingEnergy Boston: Register to attend BuildingEnergy Boston from March 20-21st for a conference and trade show designed by and for practitioners in high-performance building and design.

💡 2025 V4C Global Innovation Challenge: Apply to the Venture for Climate Tech Global Innovation Challenge by March 31st for the opportunity to receive mentorship and an invitation to the V4C showcase event during Climate Week NYC in September 2025.

📅 C2V Year 4 Showcase: Register to attend the Carbon to Value Year 4 Showcase on April 3rd to hear presentations from a cohort of carbontech startups developing technologies and business innovations to capture, convert, and sequester carbon.

💡 Compute for Climate Fellowship: Apply to the Compute for Climate Fellowship by April 6th for a chance to receive up to $200K in compute credits, specialist support, and PR opportunities to advance your climate tech startup using advanced cloud computing and AI.

💡 AI for Architecture Pitch Off: Apply to the AI for Architecture Pitch Off, hosted by Cove, by April 8th for a chance to win a $5,000 prize and be featured in Cove’s industry spotlight.

📅 Female Founders and Funders at SFCW: RSVP to join Sophie for the fourth FFF rendition and networking gathering with other women building and investing in climate tech on April 23rd at SFCW!

💡 AI for Energy Accelerator: Apply to Google’s AI for Energy Accelerator by June 30th for your grid optimization, demand flexibility or interconnection startup to access up to $350,000 in Google Cloud credits and dedicated expert mentorship.

Got an event or opportunity for us? Let us know here. 


Jobs

Research Associate - Grid, Senior Software Engineer, Research Associate - Generalist, Summer Research Intern @Sightline Climate

Full Stack Founding Engineer @Fram Energy

Investment Analyst/ Senior Investment Analyst @Angeleno Group

Investment Associate @First Time Fund – Sustainability Focus

Senior Full Stack Engineer @Coral

Policy Manager, Partnerships Manager @Carbon Business Council

Full Stack Engineer @Sunairio

Technical Reporting Analyst @CleanCapital

Client Engagement Manager, Industrial Decarbonization Intern @Carbon Direct

Head of Platform @Superorganism

Vice President - Research & Innovation, Power Supply @Energy Impact Partners


📩 Feel free to send us deals, announcements, or anything else at [email protected]. Have a great week ahead! 

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