🌍 The rise of the new joule order #238

Happy Monday!

This week, we’re giving you a breakdown of Carlyle's interesting "New Joule Order" report, which argues that energy security is now the driving factor in the energy transition, with major implications for investors and beyond.

In deals, $168m for renewable energy and storage development across two deals, $33m for smart thermostats manufacturing and $26m for direct lithium extraction.

In other news, Germany’s new spending climate bill, Europe’s plan for clean steel, and more US clean energy funding news.

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From Oil Age to Joule Era

If you were like us at CERAWeek, you were hoping for a way to make sense of this moment in an increasingly complicated world. Well, we found an intriguing new report from Carlyle that put out a new framework to do just that (and you know we love a framework at CTVC). Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle, published a report called The New Joule Order — and after we gave it a read, we wanted to share some of the analysis with all of you. (But you should also check it out here.)

The report argues that amid all this global disorder, there’s a new energy world order emerging — an ongoing shift from the Oil Age to a Joule Order, driven by countries reordering their priorities to security, affordability and then climate. The transition is still happening, it says, and can actually accelerate, as security pushes energy systems to prioritize local resources and fuels that aren’t traded and therefore subject to geopolitical volatility. Currie argues that Nixon created the first clean energy shift with his Project Independence, and that it was a comparable driver to the climate policies of the 2010s.

Figure 3: Security has driven the transition faster than environment

Source: Carlyle Analysis; Energy Institute. There is no guarantee that any projections will be achieved or that any historical trends will continue. Certain statements made on this slide are opinions and beliefs of Carlyle and should not be relied upon as a promise or representation as to past or future performance.

Our takeaways

“Oil Trade” has peaked. According to Currie, the trade in fossil fuels peaked in 2017, and nations are now prioritizing energy security and reducing their dependency on oil and gas imports (including the US, which became a net exporter in recent years). The fossil fuel trade is increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical shifts and trade disruptions, giving leaders an incentive to make their own energy.
Energy security takes the lead. Currie argues that China’s green transition wasn’t about emissions, it was about security. Geopolitical tensions and climate-induced disruptions make securing a stable, reliable, domestic energy supply crucial. That naturally prioritizes renewables and nuclear in China, but also includes fossil fuels like natural gas in the US.
Renewables need more flexibility to grow and thrive. The decarbonization rush over the past decade has made renewables more cost-competitive, but system bottlenecks and infrastructure gaps still persist. The future of energy lies not just in clean tech, but in creating systems that are flexible and robust enough to manage intermittency. Without it, gas, and even coal, will gain ground on the basis of reliability and security.
A New Joule Order brings a New Capital Stack. Investors are adapting to higher interest rates and inflation, resulting in a more selective investment environment. The divide between "brown" and "green" assets, once simplified under zero-interest conditions, has become more nuanced. Fixed-return assets like renewables and nuclear benefit from credit markets, while variable assets like gas generation and batteries rely on equity funding. As the cost of capital rises, assets with high green premiums or first-of-a-kind (FOAK) risks become much riskier. These become “security premiums” instead.

What’s next

As AI and electrification-based energy demands rise, the pursuit of delivered joules, as Currie posits, is becoming more important. Still, electricity is only a part of the equation. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), electricity accounted for only 20% of global energy use in 2019. While electrification is crucial for reducing carbon emissions, it is not a one-size-fits-all solution.

The path to a fully electrified energy system faces significant hurdles—especially in sectors that are not easily electrified, such as producing high-strength steel grades. These industries are also critical to the security of a nation. Achieving true energy independence isn't just about generating more electricity — it's about ensuring that electricity can meet the complex needs of heavy industries and critical supply chains. That’s going to require massive investments in new tech and new assets. Climate policy was headed that way, but there’s a case for it in a security-first world too.

Deals of the Week (3/17-3/23)

Late-Stage / Growth

⚡ Noble Gas Systems, a Wixom, MI-based hydrogen gas storage tanks provider, raised an initial $4m in Series B funding from AP Ventures, Air Liquide Venture Capital (ALIAD), and NOVA by Saint-Gobain.

Early-Stage

⚒️ Summit Nanotech, a Calgary, Canada-based direct lithium extraction service provider, raised $26m in Series A funding from Evok Innovations, BDC Capital, Capricorn Investment Group, LG Technology Ventures, Mitsui Kinzoku-SBI Material Innovation Fund, and other investors.

⚡BetterFleet, a Sydney, Australia-based fleet electrification solutions platform, raised $24m in Series A funding from Aligned Climate Capital, Ecosystem Integrity Fund, and Remarkable Ventures.

🧪 C1 Green Chemicals, a Berlin, Germany-based low-carbon chemical process developer, raised $16m in Seed funding from denkapparat, Maersk Growth, Planet A Ventures, and Squareone.

⚡ Novatron, a Stockholm, Sweden-based nuclear fusion company for energy production, raised $11m in Series A funding from St1 Nordic, Axon Partners Group, Climentum Capital, Granitor, Industrifonden, and other investors.

🏠 Two fifty seven, a San Francisco, CA-based residential energy data platform provider, raised $9m in Seed funding from F2 Venture Capital.

🔋 PULSETRAIN, a Munich, Germany-based AI-Driven battery management technology developer, raised $7m in Seed funding from Planet A Ventures, Vsquared Ventures, and Climate Club.

🏭 Resilco, a Lomagna, Italy-based innovative industrial waste recovery service, raised $5m in Series A funding from 360 Capital, CDP Venture Capital, and Tech4Planet.

⚡ Capalo AI, a Kuopio, Finland-based energy storage system platform, raised $4m in Seed funding from PROfounders, VentureFriends, Inventure and Innovestor.

🛵 Evera, a Paris, France-based EV leasing solutions provoider, raised $2m in Seed funding from Baltis - Groupe Magellim, M Capital Partners, Newfund, and astorya.vc.

⚡ Withthegrid, an Utrecht, Netherlands-based energy asset technology provider, raised $2m in Series A funding from Move Energy.

⚡ Phnxx, a Melbourne, Australia-based microgrid developer, raised $2m in Seed funding from ENGIE Factory, LaunchVIC, Pacific Channel, and Synertec.

🛰 Catchwise, an Oslo, Norway-based AI fishing efficiency platform, raised $1m in Pre-Seed funding from Dreamcraft Ventures, Impact Ocean Capital, and Sondo Capital.

Other

⚡ Peregrine Energy, a Boulder, CO-based renewable energy and storage developer, raised $115m in Debt funding from First Citizens Bank and Nomura.

⚡ Peregrine Energy, a Boulder, CO-based renewable energy and storage developer, raised $53m in Project finance funding from Bildmore Clean Energy.

🏠 tado°, a Munich, Germany-based smart thermostats manufacturer, raised $33m in Corporate Strategic funding from Panasonic Heating & Cooling Solutions Europe.

🔋 Coreshell Technologies, a Berkeley, CA-based nanolayer coating developer, raised $24m in Corporate Strategic funding from Ferroglobe, Zeon Ventures, Asymmetry Ventures, Entrada Ventures, Foothill Ventures, and other investors.

🧪 C1 Green Chemicals, a Berlin, Germany-based low-carbon chemical process developer, raised $5m in Grant funding.

⚡ Withthegrid, an Utrecht, Netherlands-based digital Asset Monitoring Platform company, raised $2m in Debt funding from Nationaal Groenfonds and Rabobank.

New Funds

Just Climate, a London, UK-based investment firm, raised $175m for its Natural Climate Solutions Fund, backing businesses focused on land-use transformation to support global net-zero and nature-positive goals with capital from Microsoft and CalSTRS.

Can’t get enough deals? See full listings and deal analytics on Sightline Climate

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In the News

The new German government has announced a €100bn ($109bn) boost to its climate and transformation fund as part of a broader €500bn infrastructure package to meet the country’s goal of reaching climate neutrality by 2045. This stimulus package means Germany, the biggest economy in the EU, is shifting toward more flexible investment and signals a bet on climate as an engine of economic growth, including nuclear energy and technologies like hydrogen.

The European Commission released its Steel and Metals Action Plan, a part of the EU’s new Clean Industrial Deal, to bolster the bloc’s steel industry amid challenges like US tariffs. Key measures include tighter trade defenses, more clarity around the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and support for low-carbon steel production. It could help reinvigorate EU steel, if implementation is swift and high energy costs are also brought under control.

The Trump administration awarded $56.8m to restart Michigan’s Palisades nuclear plant, aligning with its push for nuclear as a key energy source. Meanwhile, the Biden-era $20bn climate grant program was restored by a federal judge, reversing the Trump administration’s attempt to block funding for clean energy projects. The contrast underscores ongoing policy battles, leaving the future of federal clean energy funding uncertain.

A growing number of House Republicans are pushing to preserve clean energy tax credits, breaking with party lines on Biden-era climate policy. In a letter to House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith, 21 Republicans argued these credits predate the Inflation Reduction Act and should not be repealed. If these tax credits remain, they could provide much-needed stability for climate tech investment and deployment.

California unveiled a comprehensive plan to install 6m electric heat pumps by 2030, aiming to reduce emissions and enhance energy efficiency. The blueprint tackles technical, market, and policy barriers but warns the state is not on track to meet its goal. With stronger efforts needed, this initiative positions California as a leader amid the absence of federal climate leadership.

US states are pushing to speed up carbon storage permitting. Ohio and West Virginia passed a bill allowing the lease of their underground pore spaces beneath state parks for carbon storage. Meanwhile, New Mexico is advancing its bid for Class VI well primacy, which could accelerate permitting. States with primacy can approve permits in under 10 months, compared to the EPA’s 42-month average, and significantly speed up projects.

The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) released a draft update to its Corporate Net Zero Standards, with key changes on Scope 3 emissions. It stops short of requiring companies to buy near-term carbon removal, leaving the industry with limited demand beyond a few major buyers. While not yet finalized, stakeholders are invited to provide feedback to shape the final standard.

BYD launched two new EV models that it claims can charge in five minutes, about as long as it takes to pump a tank of gas. But, the impressive technical milestone needs to come with a major buildout of specialized 1MW chargers to address range anxiety among EV buyers. For now, BYD plans to install only 4,000 of these in China.

NVIDIA and xAI joined the AI Infrastructure Partnership, a group formed by BlackRock, Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), Microsoft and MGX aiming to invest an initial $30bn for AI infrastructure. Combined with debt financing, the total investment figure could reach $100bn. This is less than the $500bn OpenAI’s Stargate Project is promising over the next four years, but brings in key players across the value chain that could help relieve deployment bottlenecks, including collaborations with GE Vernova and NextEra Energy on power supply.

Trendline

A very cool interactive map from NYT brings these charts on the rise in clean energy to life, by showing what the changes look like from space.

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Opportunities & Events

📅 Cleantech Open Northeast Kickoff: RSVP to attend the Cleantech Open Northeast on March 25th for an evening of food, drink, celebration and opportunity to learn about the Cleantech Open’s accelerator program.

📅Energy Storage Summit USA: Tickets are still available for the 7th edition of the US version of the Energy Storage Summit, starting on March 26th in Dallas. Two days of content and networking focused on the US storage market, followed by afterparties.

📅 Data In Power: RSVP to attend the Data In Power discussion on March 26th for a deep dive into what data and the distribution of power means to the climate and energy community.

📅 Breaking into Climate Leadership: RSVP to attend the Breaking into Climate Leadership deep discussion on March 27th for mid-level professionals to learn how Cindy McLaughlin, Maayan Roth, Meghan Reibstein and Kevin Chou transitioned into leadership.

📅 2025 Climate Leadership Summit: Register to attend the 2025 Climate Leadership Summit organized by Harvard University students on March 28th for discussions aimed at driving solutions that inspire commitment to environmental stewardship.

💡 AI for Nature Accelerator and Climate: Apply by March 31st to join an accelerator backing AI-powered climate and biodiversity solutions, providing funding, technical resources, and mentorship.

💡 776 Fellowship: Apply to the 776 Fellowship by April 14th for an opportunity to receive up to $100,000 in non-dilutive funding to spend two years working full-time on your idea addressing the climate crisis.

📅 (Staying) Out in Climate: RSVP to attend Out in Climate during SFCW on April 24th and hear from LGBTQIA+ experts working across the climate sector from direct air capture and climate finance, to renewable energy procurement.

💡 Ray of Hope Accelerator: Apply to join the next cohort of nature-inspired biomimicry startups by April 25th and receive up to $15,000 in non-dilutive capital along with a 6-month mentorship program.

Submit Opportunities & Events Here